Contributing Factors and Trend Prediction of Urban-Settled Population Distribution Based on Human Perception Measurement: A Study on Beijing, China

Abstract

Population migration, accompanied by urbanization, has led to an increase in the urban-settled population. However, quantitative studies on the distribution of urban-settled population, especially at fine scale, are limited. This study explored the relationship between characteristics of human perceived environment and the distribution of settled population, and proposed a quantitative method to predict the distribution trend of settled population. Through the semantic segmentation of street view images and accessibility calculation based on traffic isochrone and points-of-interest, we determined human perception factors. The influence of human perception factors was quantified using the geographic detector method, and the settlement intention index (SII) was constructed combining the analytic hierarchy process to predict the distribution trend of settled population. The results indicated the following. (1) Human perception was one of the important factors influencing the distribution of urban-settled population, and the cycling accessibility to traffic facilities was closely related to the distribution of settled population. (2) The accessibility and visibility of green space with low independent influence portrayed a strong enhancement on the interactive effect of other perception factors. (3) The SII mapping of Beijing showed that the SII was reliable. This study analyzes the role of human perception in shaping the environment, and provides reference for population-related urban planning problems.