Spatiotemporal Variation in Compound Dry and Hot Events and Its Effects on NDVI in Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract

In recent decades, frequent compound dry and hot events have posed a great threat to humans and the ecological environment, especially in Inner Mongolia, which has arid and semi-arid characteristics. In this study, monthly temperature and precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1982 to 2020 were used to establish a standardized dry and hot index (SDHI). Theil–Sen median trend analysis, Mann–Kendall test, partial correlation analysis, and stepwise multiple regression models were used to characterize the changes in compound dry and hot events and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2020, and the relationship between the SDHI and NDVI was quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that the overall SDHI values in Inner Mongolia showed a significant decrease at a rate of 0.03/year from 1982 to 2020, indicating an increase in the severity of compound dry and hot events. NDVI values showed a significant increasing trend and NDVI showed mutated 2001. Among the grassland vegetation types, SDHI and NDVI trends were more significant in forests, and meadow steppe, desert steppe, and desert were more susceptible to compound dry and hot events, and forests had the greatest severity of compound dry and hot events. The results of the partial correlation analysis showed that the average value of the partial correlation coefficient between the SDHI and NDVI was 0.68, and the area of positive correlation was 84.13%. Spatially, it showed strong response characteristics in the middle and gradual weakening towards the east and west sides. The correlation between NDVI and climatic conditions varied greatly in different vegetation areas. The forest area is most sensitive to the influence of temperature, and the desert steppe area is most affected by compound dry and hot events. The overall vegetation growth in Inner Mongolia was most affected by temperature conditions, followed by compound dry and hot conditions, and the influence of drought conditions was the least significant. The results of the relative importance analysis confirmed this. The research results provide a more detailed understanding of compound dry and hot events in arid and semi-arid regions and useful insights and support for ecological protection.