Objective Assessments of Smoking and Drinking Outperform Clinical Phenotypes in Predicting Variance in Epigenetic Aging

Abstract

The reliability of the associations of the acceleration of epigenetic aging (EA) indices with clinical phenotypes other than for smoking and drinking is poorly understood. Furthermore, the majority of clinical phenotyping studies have been conducted using data from subjects of European ancestry. In order to address these limitations, we conducted clinical, physiologic, and epigenetic assessments of a cohort of 278 middle-aged African American adults and analyzed the associations with the recently described principal-components-trained version of GrimAge (i.e., PC-GrimAge) and with the DunedinPACE (PACE) index using regression analyses. We found that 74% of PC-GrimAge accelerated aging could be predicted by a simple baseline model consisting of age, sex, and methylation-sensitive digital PCR (MSdPCR) assessments of smoking and drinking. The addition of other serological, demographic, and medical history variables or PACE values did not meaningfully improve the prediction, although some variables did significantly improve the model fit. In contrast, clinical variables mapping to cardiometabolic syndrome did independently contribute to the prediction of PACE values beyond the baseline model. The PACE values were poorly correlated with the GrimAge values (r = 0.2), with little overlap in variance explained other than that conveyed by smoking and drinking. The results suggest that EA indices may differ in the clinical information that they provide and may have significant limitations as screening tools to guide patient care.