A Simplified Screening Model to Predict the Risk of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Caucasian and Latin American Pregnant Women

Abstract

The pathophysiology of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) comprises clinical and genetic factors. In fact, GDM is associated with several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This study aimed to build a prediction model of GDM combining clinical and genetic risk factors. A total of 1588 pregnant women from the San Carlos Cohort participated in the present study, including 1069 (67.3%) Caucasian (CAU) and 519 (32.7%) Latin American (LAT) individuals, and 255 (16.1%) had GDM. The incidence of GDM was similar in both groups (16.1% CAU and 16.0% LAT). Genotyping was performed via IPLEX Mass ARRAY PCR, selecting 110 SNPs based on literature references. SNPs showing the strongest likelihood of developing GDM were rs10830963, rs7651090, and rs1371614 in CAU and rs1387153 and rs9368222 in LAT. Clinical variables, including age, pre-pregnancy body mass index, and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) at 12 gestational weeks, predicted the risk of GDM (AUC 0.648, 95% CI 0.601–0.695 in CAU; AUC 0.688, 95% CI 0.628–9.748 in LAT), and adding SNPs modestly improved prediction (AUC 0.722, 95%CI 0.680–0.764 in CAU; AUC 0.769, 95% CI 0.711–0.826 in LAT). In conclusion, adding genetic variants enhanced the prediction model of GDM risk in CAU and LAT pregnant women.