Low-Carbon Multimodal Transportation Path Optimization under Dual Uncertainty of Demand and Time

Abstract

The research on the optimization of a low-carbon multimodal transportation path under uncertainty can have an important theoretical and practical significance in the high-quality development situation. This paper investigates the low-carbon path optimization problem under dual uncertainty. A hybrid robust stochastic optimization (HRSO) model is established considering the transportation cost, time cost and carbon emission cost. In order to solve this problem, a catastrophic adaptive genetic algorithm (CA-GA) based on Monte Carlo sampling is designed and tested for validity. The multimodal transportation schemes and costs under different modes are compared, and the impacts of uncertain parameters are analyzed by a 15-node multimodal transportation network numerical example. The results show that: (1) the uncertain mode will affect the decision-making of multimodal transportation, including the route and mode; (2) robust optimization with uncertain demand will increase the total cost of low-carbon multimodal transportation due to the pursuit of stability; (3) the influence of time uncertainty on the total cost is significant and fuzzy, showing the trend of an irregular wave-shaped change, like the ups and downs of the mountains. The model and algorithm we proposed can provide a theoretical basis for the administrative department and logistic services providers to optimize the transportation scheme under uncertainty.