Simulation and Regulation of High-Quality Economic Development Based on System Dynamics and DPSIR Model

Abstract

The key to promoting high-quality economic development (HQED) is to identify the influencing factors and the complex relationships among them. Under the guidance of China’s new development concept, we systematically analyze the factors influencing the HQED based on the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) model. We also establish a system dynamics model and adopt Vensim PLE x64 software to simulate the impact of dynamic changes on HQED, which include innovation, coordination, green, openness, sharing systems, and their combinations. The results show that increasing green investment is the most effective, followed by enhancing regional coordination, enhancing foreign trade, and improving human capital. Among the studied factors, improving livelihood is the weakest. For multiple policy scenarios, the balanced scenario is the most efficient, followed by the environment-oriented, and the weakest is the openness-oriented scenario. Interestingly, combined policies are also more effective than single policies, which does not always apply. Furthermore, the effect of the policy combination is more obvious with the strengthening of the implementation intensity, which is important for policymakers.