Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Scenario Simulation of Regional Green Spaces in a Rapidly Urbanizing Type I Large City: A Case Study of Changzhou, China

Abstract

The rapid urbanization observed in major Chinese cities has resulted in the degradation of both urban and rural environments. In response to this challenge, the concept of regional green spaces has emerged as an innovative approach to coordinate and manage green space resources across urban and rural areas. This study focuses on conducting a comprehensive analysis of the evolution, driving factors, and future scenarios of regional green spaces in Changzhou, which serves as a representative Type I large city in China. To accomplish this analysis, Landsat satellite images from 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 were utilized. Various methodologies, including landscape pattern indices for quantitative evaluation, the CLUE-S model, logistic regression for qualitative evaluation, and the Markov–FLUS model, were employed. The findings indicate a continuous decline in the area of regional green spaces in Changzhou, decreasing from 248.23 km2 in 1992 to 204.46 km2 in 2022. Landscape pattern analysis reveals an increase in fragmentation, complexity, irregularity, and human interference within these green spaces. Logistic regression analysis identifies key driving factors influencing regional green spaces, including elevation, urban population, and proximity to water bodies and transportation. The scenario simulations provide valuable insights into potential future trends of regional green spaces. According to the economic priority scenario, a modest increase in regional green spaces is anticipated, while the ecological priority scenario indicates substantial growth. Conversely, the inertial development scenario predicts a continued decline in regional green spaces. This research emphasizes the significance of achieving a harmonious coexistence between economic progress and environmental preservation. It emphasizes the necessity of optimizing the arrangement of green areas within a region while fostering public engagement in the conservation of these spaces. The findings contribute to the protection and sustainable development of the urban environment in the Yangtze River Delta region.