Strategic Analysis of Energy Security. Methodological Aspects of the Scenario Approach

Abstract

This article presents the research results related to the methodology of threat analysis to implement in energy security. In the conducted studies, the world’s output in scenario planning and the most famous cases of global security and technology scenarios were analysed. These projects were the Lisbon Group analysis, Shell’s scenario planning concepts, and the US National Intelligence Council’s long-term analysis. In this way, I demonstrated the limitations of a scenario-based view of the issues under study, resulting mainly from considering only one type of environment. The formulated conclusions made it possible to build the author’s model of the strategic analysis process for the energy security sector. It goes beyond scenario analysis, complementing it with the sector, portfolio, and integrated analysis methods. The strategic analysis built in this way takes into account the achievements of many scientific disciplines, namely, technology, security, strategic management, foresight, international relations, and military. The multidisciplinary knowledge used to build the proposed concept will allow one to consider the increasing complexity of the global environment. Only such a scientific approach nowadays allows practical analysis and planning in the long term. Areas of special attention in strategic analysis, which constitute directions for developing research methodology, are indicated.