Long-Term Associations between Human Cytomegalovirus Antibody Levels with All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes in an Australian Community-Based Cohort

Abstract

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection has been shown to increase the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause death among individuals with clinically apparent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether this association exists in individuals with no history of CVD remains unclear. Serum levels of HCMV IgG antibody were measured using an ELISA in 2050 participants aged 40–80 years from the 1994/1995 Busselton Health Survey who did not have CVD at baseline. Outcomes were all-cause death, cardiovascular death, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and major adverse coronary and cerebrovascular events (MACCE, composite of all-cause death, ACS, stroke and coronary artery revascularisation procedures). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to investigate HCMV antibody levels as a predictor of death and cardiovascular outcomes during follow-up periods of 5, 10 and 20 years. At baseline, participants had a mean age of 56 years and 57% were female. During the 20-year follow-up, there were 448 (21.9%) deaths (including 152 from CVD), 139 (6.8%) participants had ACS and 575 (28.0%) had MACCE. In the fully adjusted model, levels of HCMV antibody at 20 years was associated with all-cause death (HR 1.04; 95% CI 1.00, 1.07, p = 0.037) but not with CVD death, ACS or MACCE. Levels of HCMV antibody are associated with all-cause death but not with cardiovascular outcomes in adults without pre-existing CVD.