Formation of the Traffic Flow Rate under the Influence of Traffic Flow Concentration in Time at Controlled Intersections in Tyumen, Russian Federation

Abstract

Present experience shows that it is impossible to solve the problem of traffic congestion without intelligent transport systems. Traffic management in many cities uses the data of detectors installed at controlled intersections. Further, to assess the traffic situation, the data on the traffic flow rate and its concentration are compared. Latest scientific studies propose a transition from spatial to temporal concentration. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to establish the regularities of the influence of traffic flow concentration in time on traffic flow rate at controlled city intersections. The methodological basis of this study was a systemic approach. Theoretical and experimental studies were based on the existing provisions of system analysis, traffic flow theory, experiment planning, impulses, probabilities, and mathematical statistics. Experimental data were obtained and processed using modern equipment and software: Traficam video detectors, SPECTR traffic light controller, Traficam Data Tool, SPECTR 2.0, AutoCad 2017, and STATISTICA 10. In the course of this study, the authors analyzed the dynamics of changes in the level of motorization, the structure of the motor vehicle fleet, and the dynamics of changes in the number of controlled intersections. As a result of theoretical studies, a hypothesis was put forward that the investigated process is described by a two-factor quadratic multiplicative model. Experimental studies determined the parameters of the developed model depending on the directions of traffic flow, and confirmed its adequacy according to Fisher’s criterion with a probability of at least 0.9. The results obtained can be used to control traffic flows at controlled city intersections.