Assessing Consumer Implications of Reduced Salmon Supply and Environmental Impact in North America

Author:

Charlebois Sylvain1ORCID,Gone Keshava Pallavi2ORCID,Saxena Swati3,Colombo Stefanie4,Sarker Bibhuti56ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Agri-Food Analytics Lab, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada

2. Faculty of Management, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada

3. Department of Biology, University of Toronto, Mississauga, ON L5L1C6, Canada

4. Faculty of Agriculture, CRC in Sustainable Aquaculture, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada

5. Faculty of Arts, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada

6. Department of Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University, Gopalganj 8100, Bangladesh

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the Canadian government’s decision to reduce the supply of farm-raised salmon in British Columbia (BC) on domestic prices, the level of imports, and the environment. By drawing upon data from diverse sources, this study employs the SARIMAX model to forecast future trends in salmon prices up to 2026. The forecasted results reveal that retail salmon prices will exhibit greater unpredictability and a predicted price increase of over CAD 30 per kilogram by 2026. In addition, increased consumption of imported salmon due to BC farm closure is expected to contribute to heightened carbon emissions and result in job losses within rural and indigenous communities. In short, BC salmon farm closure carries profound consequences for both the environment and market dynamics.

Funder

Agri-Food Analytics Lab of Dalhousie University

Publisher

MDPI AG

Reference52 articles.

1. Government of British Colombia (2023, October 16). Salmon Aquaculture in British Colombia, Available online: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/natural-resource-stewardship/environmental-assessments/eao-project-reviews/salmon-aquaculture-summary-report.pdf.

2. Government of Canada (2023, October 16). Farmed Salmon. Species Farmed in Canada, Available online: https://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/aquaculture/sector-secteur/species-especes/salmon-saumon-eng.htm.

3. Cohen, B.I. (2023, October 20). Cohen Commission of Inquiry into the Decline of Sockeye Salmon in the Fraser River—Final Report. Available online: https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/432516/publication.html.

4. Sea Lice on Wild Juvenile Pacific Salmon and Farmed Atlantic Salmon in the Northernmost Salmon Farming Region of British Columbia;Saksida;Aquaculture,2011

5. Jiménez, R.Á., and British Columbia Announces next Step in Transitioning from Open-Net Pen Aquaculture (2023, October 16). Weare Aquaculture. Available online: https://weareaquaculture.com/news/22902.

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