Decreasing Trend of Geohazards Induced by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake Inferred from Time Series NDVI Data

Abstract

The occurrence of aftershocks and geohazards (landslides, collapses, and debris flows) decreases with time following a major earthquake. The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan, China, provides the opportunity to characterize the subsequent spatiotemporal evolution of geohazards. Following the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, the incidence of geohazards first increased sharply, representing a “post-earthquake effect”, before starting to decrease. We compared the spatial distribution of the area affected by vegetation damage (AVD) triggered by large and medium-scale geohazards (LMG). We studied the interval prior to the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake (2001–2007), the co-seismic period (2008), and the post-earthquake interval (2009–2016) and characterized the trend of decreasing geohazards at a macro scale. In vegetated areas, geohazards often seriously damage the vegetation, resulting in pronounced contrasts with the surrounding surface in terms of color tone, texture, morphology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which are evident in remote sensing images (RSI). In principle, it is possible to use the strong positive correlation between AVD and geohazards to determine indirectly the resulting vegetation and to monitor its spatiotemporal evolution. In this study we attempted to characterize the process of geohazard evolution in the region affected by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake during 2001–2016. Our approach was to analyze the characteristics of areas with reduced vegetation coverage caused by LMG. Our principal findings are as follows: (i) Before the Wenchuan Earthquake (during 2001–2007), there was no evidence for a linear increase in the number of LMG with time; thus, the geological environment was relatively stable and the geohazards were mainly induced by rainfall events. (ii) The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake was the main cause of a surge in geohazards in 2008, with the characteristics of seismogenic faults and strong aftershocks determining the spatial distribution of geohazards. (iii) Following the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake (during 2009–2016) the incidence of geohazards exhibited an oscillating pattern of attenuation, with a decreasing trend of higher-grade seismic intensity. The intensity of geohazards was related to rainfall and seismogenic faults, and also to the number, magnitude and depth of new earthquakes following the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. Our results provide a new perspective on the temporal pattern of attenuation of seismic geohazards, with implications for disaster prevention and mitigation and ecological restoration in the areas affected by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake.