Open Habitats under Threat in Mountainous, Mediterranean Landscapes: Land Abandonment Consequences in the Vegetation Cover of the Thessalian Part of Mt Agrafa (Central Greece)

Abstract

Land abandonment is one of the main drivers of land use/land cover (LULC) change across Europe, which has already led to a significant loss of open habitats, threatening species hosted in them. We investigated LULC changes for a period of 70 years in a mountainous area of central Greece (Mt Agrafa) by mapping its land cover for the years 1945, 1996 and 2015, calculating transition matrices of land cover classes and performing intensity analysis at different levels. Subareas of the study area, with different population trends, were compared in regard to their LULC change trends. Possible drivers of LULC changes were explored by means of Random Forest modeling, and landscape metrics were calculated to assess their trends. Our results showed great changes in LULC class cover, significant shrinkage of open habitats, accelerated rates of change in the recent period and no differences in LULC change patterns in relation to different population trends. Variables expressing favorability of ecological conditions for forest establishment or probability of farmland abandonment were found as more important drivers of the spatiotemporal distribution of LULC classes, while landscape metrics revealed certain trends. Our main conclusion is that land abandonment and the subsequent vegetation succession are going through a semifinal stage, before their completeness and the almost absolute dominance of the forest, and repopulation of the countryside cannot unconditionally ensure any halting effect on the land abandonment process.