Are Drought and Wind Force Driving Factors of Wind Erosion Climatic Erosivity in a Changing Climate? A Case Study in a Landlocked Country in Central Europe

Abstract

The intensity and frequency of occurrence of wind erosion have had an increasing tendency in recent years, exacerbating environmental and agricultural problems around the world. The question of whether climate change will have an accelerating impact on wind erosion might be answered by analyzing three driving parameters: wind erosion climatic erosivity (CE), standard precipitation index (SPI), and wind factor (Wf). A time series analysis of historical climatic data over a period of 58 years was performed using ArcGIS software and descriptive statistics, to detect spatiotemporal variations regarding climate change. The results of the analysis indicate that the number and intensity of drought periods are already increasing in Central Europe. Through the CE equation using the key indicators wind speed (U), temperature (T), humidity (r), and precipitation (P), we calculated decadal spatiotemporal variation and potential scenarios of climate change in terms of wind erosion intensity. The results of the study show that there has been a 1.75 °C increase in temperature since 1961 and fluctuating wind erosion intensity in recent decades. The frequency of drought periods has increased only slightly, but there has been an increase in the amount of precipitation in the last two decades of the study period, up to +6.63 and +6.53%. The wind analysis showed that mean maximum wind speed (Umaxmean) had a decreasing trend (R2 = 0.32), and the occurrence of erosive wind (Uer) (>5 m/s) exhibited seasonal changes toward spring. Wf exhibited a rise of 11.86 and 3.66% in the first two decades of the study period, followed by a decline of 8.49% in the last decade. CE analysis indicated oscillation in both directions, with decadal changes ranging between −16.95 and +15.21%. Wind erosion is becoming a more significant issue in Central Europe because of climate change, and the situation could worsen in the future. This study provides valuable insights into the impact of climate change on wind erosion in Europe and highlights the need for effective measures to mitigate its effects.