Forecasting the Optimal Sustainable Development of the Romanian Ecological Agriculture

Abstract

Organic farming is an important objective of the European Commission, translated into the European Green Pact through the Farm to Fork Strategy and the Biodiversity Strategy, with EU member countries having to find solutions to meet the target of at least 25% of agricultural land being used for organic cultivation by 2030. The aim for Romania can be achieved by modelling the distribution of crops in terms of cultivated areas and production yields obtained in organic and conventional systems according to the population size. Applying quantitative and qualitative analysis of EUROSTAT data for the above-mentioned indicators, the geomean function, linear programming, and the simplex method were used, depending on the set objectives. To demonstrate that organic farming can be sustainable and in line with the three pillars of sustainability, economic, social and environmental, we related the agricultural area to the population of Romania to highlight the average annual growth rate for the 2020–2030 tine horizon. The results showed an increase in agricultural area per capita of 0.708 ha (4.91%), compared to 0.69 ha as the average for the period 2012–2020, which correlated with organic production yields 32% lower than conventional agriculture. Through modelling, the reduction in organic farm yield was found to be less than or equal to the increase in area per capita, thus reaching the proposed target. The results of this study have long-term implications for supporting the transition to organic farming in the sense that the study argues that reaching the target of 25% of agricultural land that can enter organic farming is in line with the sustainability trilogy. The approach used can be followed and replicated according to national agricultural policies.