Risk Assessment of Waterlogging in Major Winter Wheat-Producing Areas in China in the Last 20 Years

Abstract

Against the background of global warming, agricultural meteorological disasters such as waterlogging frequently occur, significantly restricting winter wheat yield and quality formation. Studying the changing trend of meteorological characteristics of waterlogging is beneficial to stabilizing winter wheat yield. We collected meteorological and yield data of China’s main winter wheat production areas in the last 20 years to explore the impact of waterlogging in different growth stages on wheat production. The results showed that waterlogging greatly impacted winter wheat production in the main winter wheat production areas in China, and the degree of influence was larger in the south than in the north. The precipitation in the south was higher, and waterlogging occurred in most growth stages, but waterlogging at the filling stage was more consistent with the yield reduction. On the other hand, the interannual variation in precipitation in the seedling stage in the north varied greatly, which was the critical stage of waterlogging. In conclusion, waterlogging was one of the main factors affecting winter wheat production in China. For southern cities, the filling period was the key period for disaster prevention and mitigation, but it was the seedling stage in the north.