Does Urban Agglomeration Promote the Development of Cities? An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Econometrics

Abstract

Based on the panel data of 278 cities in China from 2010–2019, this paper uses the spatial Durbin model to investigate the effect of urban agglomeration on urban economic development under the distance factor. The results show that the impact of urban agglomeration on urban development is sensitive to geographic distance. A moderate geospatial scale can help cities overcome scale deficiencies and the problem of overcrowding. The spillover effect of urban agglomeration is no longer limited to geographical proximity, showing an inverted U-shaped curve with the expansion of distance. It also exhibits heterogeneity across different regions, and integrated development reinforces the positive impact of agglomeration spillovers. The economic distance moderation effect and the core-periphery structure suggest that the direction of spatial interaction is more reflected between high-ranking cites and low-ranking cities, while cities with similar development levels show competitive effects. Specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration have differential influences on urban growth. From the perspective of network externalities, the spillover effect of urban agglomeration increases significantly with the expansion of spatial scale, which is distinct from the results using geographical distance.