A Dynamic Programming Approach to Ecosystem Management

Abstract

We propose a way of dealing with invasive species or pest control in agriculture. Ecosystems can be modeled via dynamical systems. For their study, it is necessary to establish their possible equilibria. Even a moderately complex system exhibits, in general, multiple steady states. Usually, they are related to each other through transcritical bifurcations, i.e., the system settles to a different equilibrium when some bifurcation parameter crosses a critical threshold. From a situation in which the pest is endemic, it is desirable to move to a pest-free point. The map of the system’s equilibria and their connections via transcritical bifurcations may indicate a path to attain the desired state. However, to force the parameters to cross the critical threshold, some human action is required, and this effort has a cost. The tools of dynamic programming allow the detection of the cheapest path to reach the desired goal. In this paper, an algorithm for the solution to this problem is illustrated.