Supply Chain Risk of Obsolescence at Simultaneous Robust Perturbations

Abstract

The earlier planning methods of supply chains (SC) in the skeleton of the extended material requirements planning (EMRP), where the time horizon of the reverse Laplace is infinite, were not convenient to estimate the impact of the technical obsolescence of the product or technology involved, which has economic, environmental, and social consequences. Therefore, the perturbations of timing are presented until the possible obsolescence, with parallel execution of the network simulation model (NSM) to evaluate the impact of the finite lifespan on the value of the chain. The EMRP, as well as the NSM, are based on the skeleton of the material requirements planning model, where delays and their perturbations are presented transparently. Contrary to the previous studies of the net present value (NPV) in the EMRP skeleton, where the infinite horizon is assumed, the impact of shortening the horizon of activities is shown here, in order to also evaluate the risk of financing investments in the SC with a shorter lifespan of products or technology. Owing to the simultaneous appearances of the stochastic variables, the parallel execution and exchanging of data, using NSM is advised. The procedures for estimation of correction factors of the NPV and their values are given.