Analysis of National PM2.5 (FPM and CPM) Emissions by Past, Current, and Future Energy Mix Scenarios in the Republic of Korea

Abstract

The main purpose of this study was to analyze the Korean PM2.5 emissions according to the past, present, and future energy mix scenarios from 1970 to 2035, with the aim of identifying a sustainable, future environmentally friendly energy mix scenario for Korea related to PM2.5 emissions. To calculate the PM2.5 emissions according to an energy mix plan, we assumed two scenarios: (1) Scenario 1 is based on an energy conversion scenario established by the Korean government’s 7th electric power demand supply program; and (2) Scenario 2 is enhancement of fuel cell usage. In Scenario 1, filterable PM2.5 (FPM2.5) emission was calculated as 61,158 ton/year, which includes contributions of anthracite (46.8%), petroleum (39.7%), natural gas (LNG) (10.0%), and LPG (0.1%). In Scenario 2, FPM2.5 emission was calculated as 36,917 ton/year, which includes contributions of petroleum (47.8%), anthracite (40.3%), bituminous coal (10.1%), and LNG (1.7%). Thus, we concluded that the FPM2.5 mitigation effect from fuel cell policy enforcement is about 38.13% higher than the Korean national energy conversion policy. PM2.5 (FPM2.5 + condensable PM2.5 (CPM2.5)) emissions dramatically increased in both energy mix scenarios so that CPM2.5 should be considered when estimating PM2.5 emissions and PM2.5 reduction.