Predictive Analysis of Adaptation to Drought of Farmers in the Central Zone of Colombia

Abstract

Drought constitutes one of the natural phenomena that causes the greatest socio-economic, and environmental losses in both the short and long term worldwide. Each year, these events are related to the presence of “El Niño—Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), which occurs throughout Colombia and has serious consequences in the agricultural and food sectors, as well as in most of the country’s population. Farmers have adopted a number of strategies to mitigate the negative impact of droughts on food production. Certainly, when implementing future strategies, such strategies will be less effective if farmers’ insights on ENSO are not considered. Consequently, this study was carried out to analyze the variables that predict adaptation to droughts in the dry zones of the department of Tolima. Three questionnaires were designed: socioeconomic vulnerability (SVT), risk perception (SRPT) and drought adaptation (SAT). A non-probability sample of 538 farmers was surveyed. Socio-economic vulnerability and drought perception were found to be predictive of drought adaptation in the study sample, and older people were found to be resilient to adaptation. The results of this research provide empirical evidence to analyze and formulate public policies about the impact of droughts on the most vulnerable populations.