Optimal Time Phase Identification for Apple Orchard Land Recognition and Spatial Analysis Using Multitemporal Sentinel-2 Images and Random Forest Classification

Abstract

The significance of identifying apple orchard land and monitoring its spatial distribution patterns is increasing for precise yield prediction and agricultural sustainable development. This study strived to identify the optimal time phase to efficiently extract apple orchard land and monitor its spatial characteristics based on the random forest (RF) classification method and multitemporal Sentinel-2 images. Firstly, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI), and Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) between apple orchard land and other green vegetation (other orchards, forest and grassland) during the growing stage were calculated and compared to identify the optimal time phase for apple orchard land extraction; the RF classifier was then constructed using multifeature variables on Google Earth Engine to efficiently identify apple orchard land, and the support vector machine (SVM) classification results were used as a comparison; GIS spatial analysis, a slope calculation model, and Moran’s I and Getis-Ord GI* analysis were employed to further analyze the spatial patterns of the apple orchard land. The results found the following: (1) April, May, and October were the optimal time phases for apple orchard identification. (2) The RF-based method combining coefficients of indexes, the grayscale co-occurrence matrix, and 70% of the ground reference data can precisely classify apple orchards with an overall accuracy of 90% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.88, increasing by 9.2% and 11.4% compared to those using the SVM. (3) The total area of apple orchard land in the study area was 485.8 km2, which is 0.6% less than the government’s statistical results. More than half (55.7%) of the apple orchard land was distributed on the gentle slope (Grade II, 6–15°) and the flat slope (Grade I, 0–5°); SiKou, Songshan, and Shewopo contained more than 50% of the total orchard land area. (4) The distribution of apple orchard land has a positive spatial autocorrelation (0.309, p = 0.000). High–High cluster types occurred mainly in Sikou (60%), High–Low clusters in Songshan (40%), Low–High clusters in Sikou (47.5%), and Low–Low clusters in Taocun and Tingkou (37.4%). The distribution patterns of cold and hot spots converged with those of the Local Moran Index computation results. The findings of this study can provide theoretical and methodological references for orchard land identification and spatial analysis.