Decoding Success: Predictive Analysis of UEFA Euro 2024 to Uncover Key Factors Influencing Soccer Match Outcomes

Abstract

This study presents the analysis of the UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany, focusing on the impact of the first goal on match outcomes, goal distribution between halves and quarters, and the relationship between offensive, defensive, and goalkeeping metrics and match outcomes. Moreover, a regression model is developed to identify the key factors that significantly contribute to teams’ success. The analysis of the 36 group stage matches revealed that scoring the first goal significantly increased the likelihood of a positive match outcome. There were no significant differences between goals scored in the first and second halves or per 15 min of the game. Kruskal–Wallis tests highlighted that winning teams had more assists, attempts on target and runs into the penalty area. Defensive metrics showed that winning teams recovered more balls, while goalkeeping metrics revealed that winning teams had more clean sheets. The logistic regression model identified “Attempts on Target” and “Passes into Attacking Third” as significant positive predictors of winning, while “Attempts on Target Outside Area” and “Crosses Attempted” were negative predictors. These findings offer valuable insights for coaching staff to develop strategies focusing on key performance indicators that enhance the likelihood of winning.