Food Trade Network and Food Security: From the Perspective of Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

In recent times, there has been a growing interest in the role of food trade in achieving food security. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between food trade and food security within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This study employs complex networks alongside the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) regression method on trade data of 46 countries under BRI for the period 2008 to 2018. The resulting complex network showed an enhancement in the food trade relationships and food security levels after BRI, indicating a mutually positive effect. In addition, the closeness centrality measure showed a strong correlation with food security, indicating that food trade has positive spillovers on food security in the proximate countries. Using geographical distance as an instrumental variable, the QAP regression model proved the positive effects of food trade on food security. More investment in trade infrastructure is recommended to reduce the negative effect of geographical distance on food security.