Analysis of Crop Sustainability Production Potential in Northwest China: Water Resources Perspective

Abstract

From the perspective of water resources, revealing the potential of sustainable production of crops, clarifying the obstacles, and taking effective measures in advance can not only provide residents with long-term sufficient and nutritious food needs but also help to promote food security and economic benefits. Previous studies on this aspect have mainly focused on food crops and paid less attention to cash crops. This study takes Northwest China as the research area, which is a typical arid and semi-arid region with the most prominent contradiction between water supply and demand. We analyzed the changing characteristics of the available water resources, the production water footprint, and the total water footprint over time from the perspective of water resources, and systematically analyze the potential for sustainable development. The results showed that the regional water resource consumption in 2000–2020 showed a significant upward trend (p < 0.01). Similarly, the water resource load index also increased in this period, which increased by 164.3%. Water resources pressure increased from level III to level I, and there is no further development potential. At the same time, the proportion of available agricultural water resources was forcibly reduced by 9.0%. Fortunately, the crop production water footprint showed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.01), with a decrease of 43.6%. Among them, grain and cash crops decreased by 45.4% and 49.5% respectively. Although the production water footprint is reduced, regional production is increasing to meet the increasing consumer demand. The crop water footprint showed a significant increase (p < 0.01), increasing by 13.4%. The available water resources of crops in the region are compressed, but the amount of water needed for crop production is increasing significantly, which poses challenges to the sustainable production of crops. According to the research results, the detailed recommended measures to promote sustainable regional crop production are put forward from the perspective of increasing the amount of regional water resources available, improving the utilization efficiency of blue and green water, and crop yield level, so as to better serve the global food security.