Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Occurrence in Central Poland in 1961–2020 as an Element of the Climatic Risk to Crop Production

Abstract

The results of numerous studies concerning meteorological drought show that there is a considerable impact of this phenomenon on several regions in Europe. On the other hand, statistical trends of dry spell occurrences in some areas of the continent are unclear or even negative. Therefore, further research should be directed towards a better understanding of this hazard, particularly the seasonal changes, in order to elaborate adequate strategies to prevent and mitigate its undesirable effects. The main goal of the work, conducted as part of the research strategy on contemporary climate change, was to confirm the hypothesis of increasing frequency and intensity of droughts during the period of active plant growth and development (May–August) in central Poland in 1961–2020. The prevailing rainfall conditions in this period determine the production and economic effects of agricultural output. The analysis covered a multiannual period, including two separate climate normals: 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. The work is also aimed at detecting relationships between indicators characterizing meteorological drought (the Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI) and agricultural drought (the actual precipitation deficiency—PAdef). It was found that the frequency of meteorological droughts in the studied period amounts to 30.0% (severe and extreme constitute 6.7%). No significant increase in the frequency and intensity of meteorological droughts over time was observed. Relationships between meteorological and agricultural drought indicators were significant, so the SPI can be considered an indicator of plant irrigation needs in the studied area.