Agricultural and Foodstuff Trade between EU28 and Russia: (Non)Uniformity of the Russian Import Ban Impact Distribution

Abstract

The distribution of the impact of the Russian import ban on the EU28 countries is not uniform. The market shares and clustering of the EU28 countries changed before and after the introduction of the ban. Although the Russian import ban was introduced as a countermeasure to Western sectoral and individual sanctions, the ban’s impact on EU28 economies is not parallel, and the impact is not evenly distributed among EU members. Cluster analysis shows that two groups of countries can be distinguished, with Group 2 having the most severe impact from the ban (on average, a decrease of 48% in the trade balance with Russia). Our results show that Germany, the Netherlands, Latvia, Lithuania, Italy and Poland are the countries which have experienced the largest Russian import ban impact and bear up to 63% of total EU28 losses due to the ban. Some of the countries (Austria, Hungary, Czechia) did not stop expanding trade after the import ban, and they could be the ones to see the first benefits once the ban is lifted.