Climate-Induced Risk Assessment of Rural and Urban Agroforestry Managers of Aizawl District, Northeast India

Abstract

Climate change exerts a substantial influence on global livelihood security. This research aims to elucidate the risk faced by agroforestry managers of urban and rural areas. Adhering to the IPCC risk framework, we structured the experimental design and adopted an indicator-based methodology to delineate the risk dimensions. Altogether, 105 households from 7 villages in Aizawl district, Mizoram, India, were considered for the study. For indicator identification, we conducted a comprehensive literature review and subsequently employed principal component analysis to select relevant indicators. Finally, risk was determined using the index value of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Additionally, we also developed a regression model and integrated it into ArcGIS to generate a spatial risk map. Out of 69 indicators identified, 52 were selected for final assessment after PCA analysis. Our findings underscore the higher susceptibility of urban agroforestry managers to climate change which was in agreement to our hypothesis that the risk index of agroforestry households increases with altitude while it decreases with the distance from Aizawl headquarter. Furthermore, we observed that households residing at higher altitudes exhibit greater vulnerability. Key determinants contributing to elevated risk in the region encompass land ownership constraints, diminished yields, traditional farming practices with no institutional help, and a dearth of available labour resources. The study advocates the implementation of climate smart agroforestry practices integrated with agricultural credit schemes and an educational policy designed to enrol dropout youths.