Challenges to Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa in the Context of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

In this article, the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is analyzed. With Ukraine being recognized as one of the major global grain producers and exporters, the conflict is seen as posing a significant challenge to MENA countries, which are heavily dependent on grain imports from Ukraine. The importance of global linkages in food supply chains and their influence on regional food security is highlighted in this context. Utilizing secondary data from 2002 to 2021 obtained from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the study focuses on demography and food security, analyzing how these factors intertwine with grain export dynamics. The escalating hostilities have disrupted transportation routes, damaged infrastructure, and hindered logistics, resulting in substantial export volume reductions. Geopolitical tensions have exacerbated these effects, diminishing confidence among MENA grain importers. The study highlights how these disruptions have influenced global supply chains, prices, and agricultural product availability, with a specific focus on the MENA region’s challenges in food security, compounded by conflicts, climate change, and import dependence. A detailed demographic analysis reveals the impact of population changes on food demand and distribution, offering insights into how population growth and urbanization, alongside shifts in malnutrition and obesity rates, affect food security. The study concludes that the MENA region’s increasing reliance on food imports, coupled with climatic and political variabilities, underscores its growing vulnerability to global supply chain disruptions and the need for robust strategies to address these challenges.