Comparative Analysis of Statistical Regression Models for Prediction of Live Weight of Korean Cattle during Growth

Abstract

Measuring weight during cattle growth is essential for determining their status and adjusting the feed amount. Cattle must be weighed on a scale, which is laborious and stressful and could hinder growth. Therefore, automatically predicting cattle weight could reduce stress on cattle and farm laborers. This study proposes a prediction system to measure the change in weight automatically during growth using three regression models, using environmental factors, feed intake, and weight during the period. The Bayesian inference and likelihood estimation principles estimate parameters that determine the models: the weighted regression model (WRM), Gaussian process regression model (GPRM), and Gaussian process panel model (GPPM). A posterior distribution was derived using these parameters, and a weight prediction system was implemented. An experiment was conducted using image data to evaluate model performance. The GPRM with the squared exponential kernel had the best predictive power. Next, GPRMs with polynomial and rational quadratic kernels, the linear model, and WRM had the next-best predictive power. Finally, the GPRM with the linear kernel, the linear model, and the latent growth curve model, and types of GPPM had the next-best predictive power. GPRM and WRM are statistical probability models that apply predictions to the entire cattle population. These models are expected to be useful for predicting cattle growth on farms at a population level. However, GPPM is a statistical probability model designed for measuring the weight of individual cattle. This model is anticipated to be more efficient when predicting the weight of individual cattle on farms.