Perspectives on Effective Long-Term Management of Carbon Stocks in Chernozem under Future Climate Conditions

Abstract

Arable Chernozems with high SOC contents have the potential to be significant sources of GHGs, and climate change is likely to increase SOC losses, making the issue of carbon sequestration in this region even more important. The prospect of maintaining SOC stock or increasing it by 4‰ annually under planned management practice modifications for the period up to 2090 was evaluated using a long-term experiment on Haplic Chernozem in the Rostov Region, Russia. In this study, we used the RothC model to evaluate SOC dynamics for three treatments with mineral and organic fertilization under two adaptation scenarios vs. business-as-usual scenarios, as well as under two climate change scenarios. The correction of crop rotation and the application of organic fertilizers at high rates are essential tools for maintaining and increasing SOC stocks. These methods can maintain SOC stock at the level of 84–87 Mg∙ha−1 until the middle of the 21st century, as the first half of the century is considered to be the most promising period for the introduction of adaptation measures for the additional accumulation of SOC on Chernozems. Part of the additional accumulated SOC is expected to be lost before 2090.