How Does Climate Change Affect Rice Yield in China?

Abstract

The global warming phenomenon has undoubtedly brought unprecedented challenges to rice production, vital for food security in Southeast Asian countries and China. Most studies on this topic have focused narrowly on the direct effect of climate change on rice yield, neglecting the indirect effect. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2016, in this paper, we propose and test a mediational effect model to examine the mechanisms of how climate change affects rice yield. We find that climate change leads to changes in functional irrigation areas, farmers’ fertilizing behavior, and agricultural labor supply, and it is these mediating factors that effectively transmit the impact of climate change to China’s rice production. The positive indirect impact of climate change on the factors of production often partially or overly compensates for the adverse direct effect of climate change on rice yield, leading to a surprising observation of the association of climate change with increased rice yield, at least in the short run. We also provide some preliminary policy advice based on the analysis.