Competitiveness and Cereal Self-Sufficiency in Western Balkan Countries

Abstract

Crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and challenges associated with sustainable development have emphasized the need for local food to increase the food system’s resilience. Therefore, this research analyzes the food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) and revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of cereals in Western Balkan countries (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia) and compares them with the same indicators for all European countries. The methodological framework of this research examined the food self-sufficiency and macro-level competitiveness for cereals in Western Balkan countries, as well as in Europe. The results of the research showed that all European countries have higher self-sufficiency in cereals (109.12%) and higher revealed comparative advantage (2.21) compared to the group of Western Balkans countries (71.89%; 1.53), which have lower values of the mentioned indicators. The results of econometric modeling for the Western Balkan countries showed that GDP per capita negatively influences the SSR of cereals, and agriculture value added per worker and area harvested under cereals positively influence the SSR of cereals. When it comes to the influence on the RCA of cereals in the Western Balkan region, the critical influence is GDP per capita, political stability, and agriculture value added per worker, all of which positively influence the RCA.