Colombian Crop Resilience: Evaluating National Yield Stability for Fruit and Vegetable Systems

Abstract

In recent years the yield of fruits and vegetables has been decreasing, threatening Colombia’s food security. Analysis of crop production data may lead to identifying cropping systems that have shown better adaptability to changes in climatic and non-climatic factors associated with agricultural production. The open database AGRONET keeps data on the agricultural activities conducted in Colombia, allowing us to find the information organized by crops, regions and years. Aiming to identify resilient crop systems in Colombia, agricultural data on fruits and vegetables were analyzed. First, trends in crop production were studied by year and location, detecting the regions and crops with the highest yields in the period from 2006 until 2020. Then, mixed linear regression and principal components analysis were applied to elucidate the relation between non-climatic factors and crop yield. In Colombia, vegetable production was more efficient than fruits, observing yields of 10.23 and 13.33 t ha−1, respectively. On the other hand, the Colombian central region showed high yields for vegetables, while for fruits this was exhibited in northern and eastern locations. In the present study, yield variation responded to changes in the location of crop systems, while years had no effect on vegetable production. Furthermore, the price of the agricultural product and the cost of fertilizers were associated with the yield of the analyzed crop systems. In Colombia, carrots, cabbage, tomato papaya and pineapple are resilient crops whose yield increases, especially in the regions where they are cultivated.