How Far Will Climate Change Affect Future Food Security? An Inquiry into the Irrigated Rice System of Peninsular India

Abstract

Climate change poses a great challenge to food security, particularly in developing nations where important food crops such as rice and wheat have been grown in large quantities. The study investigates food security using an integrated approach, which comprises forecasting future rice production using the AquaCrop model and demand for rice using an economic model. The proposed approach was evaluated in the Cauvery delta zone in the eastern part of Tamil Nadu, which is a major rice-growing hotspot in peninsular India. Our results showed that the future rice productivity of the Cauvery delta region would be reduced by 35% between 2021 and 2040 and by 16% between 2041 and 2050. However, the supply–demand gap addressing food security in the Cauvery delta zone is positive for the future, as evidenced by the availability of surplus rice of 0.39 million tonnes for the period 2021–2030 and 0.23 million tonnes and 0.35 million tonnes for the periods 2031–2040 and 2041–2050, respectively. Nevertheless, as the neighboring regions are relying on rice production from the Cauvery delta, this surplus rice production is potentially not sufficient to meet the demand of the state as a whole, which suggests climate change may pose a severe threat to the food security of the Tamil Nadu State. These findings emphasize the necessity of performing regional-level food security assessments with a focus on developing location-specific policy options to mitigate the adverse effects of climate-induced anomalies on food security.