Runoff Decline Is Dominated by Human Activities

Abstract

Investigations into runoff change and its influencing factors hold immense significance for promoting sustainable development, efficient water resource utilization, and the improvement of the ecological environment. To reduce methodological uncertainties, this study employed six attribution analysis methods, including two statistical approaches, a Budyko equation sensitivity coefficient method, and three hydrology models, to differentiate the contributions of climate change and human activities to the runoff change in the Xiliugou basin. The results indicated an abrupt change point in 2006, and the annual runoff series from 1960 to 2020 demonstrated a significant declining trend. All the six methods revealed that human activities were the major influencing factor. The average contribution rate of climate change was noted to be 24.2%, while that of human activities was 75.8% among the six methods used for this study. The prominent human activities in the Xiliugou basin revolve around soil and water conservation measures. The research findings hold great significance for the comprehensive understanding of runoff formation and its response to the changing environment in the Xiliugou basin. Additionally, these results can provide a foundation for decision-making for water resource management and ecological protection.