Estimating Climate-Sensitive Wildfire Risk and Tree Mortality Models for Use in Broad-Scale U.S. Forest Carbon Projections

Abstract

This study utilizes forest inventory and climate attributes as the basis for estimating models of wildfire risk and associated biomass loss (tree mortality) and then demonstrates how they can be applied in calculating CO2 emissions related to the incidence of wildfires from U.S. forests. First, we use the full set of over 150,000 FIA plots of national forest inventory and climatic parameters to estimate models of the annual probability of wildfire occurrence and loss of live tree biomass. Then, maps of the spatial allocation of both the model-derived probability of wildfire occurrences and tree mortality are presented at the national level. The probability of wildfire occurrences and tree mortality were defined by a complex non-linear association of climatic conditions and forest ownerships, available aboveground biomass, and the age of the stand. Then, we provide an example of how these models can estimate potential CO2 emissions from wildfires by using FIA inventory data. We estimated 6.10, 16.65, 22.75, and 31.01 million metric tons of annual CO2 emissions with low, medium, high, and catastrophic combustion rates, respectively, from forests due to wildfire in the continental U.S. The wildfire risk and biomass loss due to tree mortality maps can be used by landowners, managers, public agencies, and other stakeholders in identifying high-risk wildfire zones and the potential CO2 emissions. These equations can also help estimate fire risk and associated CO2 emissions for future climate conditions to provide insight into climate change-related wildfire occurrences.