Particle Swarm Optimization Method for Stand-Alone Photovoltaic System Reliability and Cost Evaluation Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

In rural regions with limited access to the power grid, self-reliance for electricity generation is paramount. This study focuses on enhancing the design of stand-alone photovoltaic installations (SAPV) to replace conventional fuel generators thanks to the decreasing costs of PV modules and batteries. This study presents a particle swarm optimization (PSO) method for the reliable and cost-effective sizing of SAPV systems. The proposed method considers the variability of PV generation and domestic demand and optimizes the system design to minimize the total cost of ownership while ensuring a high level of reliability. The results show that for the PSO method with 500 iterations, the error is around 2%, and the simulation time is approximately 2.25 s. Moreover, the PSO method allows a much lower number of iterations to be used in the Monte Carlo simulation, with a total of 100 iterations used to obtain the averaged results. The optimization results, encompassing installed power, battery capacity, reliability, and annual costs, reveal the effectiveness of our approach. Notably, our discretized PSO algorithm converges, yielding specific parameters like 9900 W of installed power and a battery configuration of five 3550 Wh units for the case study under consideration. In summary, our work presents an efficient SAPV system design methodology supported by concrete numerical outcomes, considering supply reliability and installation and operational costs.