Analysis of the Performance of a Hybrid Thermal Power Plant Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)-Based Approaches

Abstract

The hybridization of conventional thermal power plants by the incorporation of renewable energy systems has witnessed widespread adoption in recent years. This trend aims not only to mitigate carbon emissions but also to enhance the overall efficiency and performance of these power generation facilities. However, calculating the performance of such intricate systems using fundamental thermodynamic equations proves to be both laborious and time-intensive. Nevertheless, possessing accurate and real-time insights into their performance is of utmost significance to ensure optimal plant operation, facilitate decision making, and streamline power production planning. This paper explores the novel application of machine learning techniques to predict the performance of hybrid thermal power plants, specifically the integrated solar combined cycle power plant (ISCCPP). These plants combine conventional thermal power generation with renewable energy sources, making them crucial in the context of carbon reduction and enhanced efficiency. We employ three machine learning approaches: the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), ANFIS optimized via particle swarm optimization (ANFIS-PSO), and ANFIS optimized through a genetic algorithm (ANFIS-GA). These methods are applied to the complex ISCCPP, comprising steam and gas turbine sections and a concentrated solar power system. The results highlight the accuracy of ANFIS-based models in evaluating and predicting plant performance, with an exceptional overall correlation coefficient of 0.9991. Importantly, integrating evolutionary algorithms (PSO and GA) into ANFIS significantly enhances performance, yielding correlation coefficients of 0.9994 for ANFIS-PSO and 0.9997 for ANFIS-GA, with ANFIS-GA outperforming the others. This research provides a robust tool for designers, energy managers, and decision makers, offering valuable support in assessing the performance of hybrid thermal power plants. As the world transitions to cleaner energy sources, the insights gained here are poised to have a significant impact on the growing number of these thermal power plants globally.