Cohort-Based Analysis of Foreign Residents’ Growth in Japan

Abstract

In Japan, the cohort structure of foreign residents and its spatial distribution significantly change along with the acceptance of a specialized and technically skilled workforce. This study aims to analyze the transition of foreign residents’ characteristics with time series with statistical viewpoints, in order to clarify the policy building for foreign migrants by local government. A nonnegative matrix factorization model (NMF) is applied to the cohort data of foreign residents in 47 Japanese prefectures in 2010, 2015 and 2020. By applying NMF to the ratio by cohort shifting, the common basis of foreign residents among the prefectures and its structures are obtained. The results show the cohort transition for foreign migrants with infants or children were significantly different, especially between Tohoku and Kyusyu regions from 2010 to 2020. The elderly cohort also had a significant change in Tohoku region from 2015 to 2020. Since the regions highlighted in this analysis include many depopulated areas, and the capacity of those local governments for the policy building would not be enough, they should be supported well by the national government.