Machine Learning Applied to Tree Crop Yield Prediction Using Field Data and Satellite Imagery: A Case Study in a Citrus Orchard

Abstract

The overall goal of this study is to define an intelligent system for predicting citrus fruit yield before the harvest period. This system uses a machine learning algorithm trained on historical field data combined with spectral information extracted from satellite images. To this end, we used 5 years of historical data for a Moroccan orchard composed of 50 parcels. These data are related to climate, amount of water used for irrigation, fertilization products by dose, phytosanitary treatment dose, parcel size, and root-stock type on each parcel. Additionally, two very popular indices, the normalized difference vegetation index and normalized difference water index were extracted from Sentinel 2 and Landsat satellite images to improve prediction scores. We managed to build a total dataset composed of 250 rows, representing the 50 parcels over a period of 5 years labeled with the yield of each parcel. Several machine learning algorithms were tested with the necessary parameter optimization, while the orthonormal automatic pursuit algorithm gave good prediction scores of 0.2489 (MAE: Mean Absolute Error) and 0.0843 (MSE: Mean Squared Error). Finally, the approach followed in this study shows excellent potential for fruit yield prediction. In fact, the test was performed on a citrus orchard, but the same approach can be used on other tree crops to achieve the same goal.