Predicting Recurrent Deficiency and Suboptimal Monitoring of Thiamin Deficiency in Patients with Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery

Abstract

Introduction: Vitamin B1 (thiamine) deficiency (TD) after metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) is often insidious and, if unrecognized, can lead to irreversible damage or death. As TD symptoms are vague and overlap with other disorders, we aim to identify predictors of recurrent TD and failure to collect B1 labs. Methods: We analyzed a large sample of data from patients with MBS (n = 878) to identify potential predictors of TD risk. We modeled recurrent TD and failure to collect B1 labs using classical statistical and machine learning (ML) techniques. Results: We identified clusters of labs associated with increased risk of recurrent TD: micronutrient deficiencies, abnormal blood indices, malnutrition, and fluctuating electrolyte levels (aIRR range: 1.62–4.68). Additionally, demographic variables associated with lower socioeconomic status were predictive of recurrent TD. ML models predicting characteristics associated with failure to collect B1 labs achieved 75–81% accuracy, indicating that clinicians may fail to match symptoms with the underlying condition. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that both clinical and social factors can increase the risk of life-threatening TD episodes in some MBS patients. Identifying these indicators can help with diagnosis and treatment.