An Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Bow-Tie Model (IVIF-BT) for the Effectiveness Evaluation of Safety Barriers in Natural Gas Storage Tank

Abstract

Safety barriers (SBs) are important means of reducing failure risks of process systems. As barriers vary in type and function, their effectiveness needs to be evaluated in order to find a more reasonable configuration strategy. However, in practice, there is often a lack of accurate and complete data relating to SBs, which poses a significant challenge in quantitatively assessing their effectiveness. To address this issue, in this study, we propose a semi-quantitative approach for evaluating the effectiveness of both preventive and protective barriers in process systems by integrating expert elicitation, interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVIFNs), and a bow-tie model. In this approach, the bow-tie model is first applied to describe the system failure scenarios and the action phases of the barriers, and then IVIFNs with expert judgment are introduced to obtain the failure probabilities of basic events and the effects of SBs. Subsequently, the effectiveness of each barrier is measured by comparing the relative change in failure risk due to the addition of the barrier. To verify the feasibility of this approach, a natural gas storage tank with some barriers was analyzed. The results show that the regular inspection of the deformation or damage of the storage tank has the highest effectiveness, followed by the installation and regular maintenance of safety electrical equipment. Furthermore, compared to a single barrier, multiple barriers can significantly reduce the system risk.