Parameter Estimation and Preliminary Fault Diagnosis for Photovoltaic Modules Using a Three-Diode Model

Abstract

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) power generation can ensure the stability of regional voltage control, provide a smooth PV output voltage and reduce the impact on power systems with many PV units. The internal parameters of solar cells that affect their PV power output may change over a period of operation and must be re-estimated to produce a power output close to the actual value. To accurately estimate the power output for PV modules, a three-diode model is used to simulate the PV power generation. The three-diode model is more accurate but more complex than single-diode and two-diode models. Different from the traditional methods, the 9 parameters of the three-diode model are transformed into 16 parameters to further provide more refined estimates. To accurately estimate the 16 parameters in the model, an optimization tool that combines enhanced swarm intelligence (ESI) algorithms and the dynamic crowing distance (DCD) index is used based on actual historical PV power data and the associated weather information. When the 16 parameters for a three-diode model are accurately estimated, the I–V (current-voltage) curves for different solar irradiances are plotted, and the possible failures of PV modules can be predicted at an early stage. The proposed method is verified using a 200 kWp PV power generation system. Three different diode models that are optimized using different ESI algorithms are compared for different weather conditions. The results affirm the reliability of the proposed ESI algorithms and the value of creating more refined estimation models with more parameters. Preliminary fault diagnosis results based on the differences between the actual and estimated I–V curves are provided to operators for early maintenance reference.