Replacing Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Power with Renewable Energy: Utopia or Valid Option? A Swiss Case Study of Bioenergy

Abstract

The transition towards a reliable, sustainable, low-carbon energy system is a major challenge of the 21st century. Due to the lower energy density of many renewable energy sources, a future system is expected to be more decentralized, leading to significant changes at the regional scale. This study analyzes the feasibility of the energy transition in the Swiss canton of Aargau as an illustrative example and explores different strategies to satisfy the local demand for electricity, heat, and fuel by 2035. In particular, we assess the potential contribution of biomass. Four scenarios demonstrate what energy demand proportion could be covered by bioenergy if different priorities were given to the provision of heat, electricity, and fuel. The impact of improved conversion technologies is also considered. The results show that the sustainably available renewable energy sources in canton Aargau will probably not be sufficient to cover its forecasted energy demand in 2035, neither with present nor future biomass conversion technologies. At best, 74% of the energy demand could be met by renewables. Biomass can increase the degree of autarky by a maximum of 13%. Depending on the scenario, at least 26–43% (2500–5700 GWh) of total energy demand is lacking, particularly for mobility purposes.