Taxonomy and Ex Ante Metric of Climate Change Adaptation Projects Recorded in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as Updated for Conference of the Parties-26 (COP-26)

Abstract

The authors have proposed a method of reiterating the statistical analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the UNFCCC Parties, which were updated at Conference of the Parties-26. The present analysis confirms the taxonomy developed in 2020, based on 2475 adaptive solutions recorded in 2022 NDCs, and discusses the differences observed. An ex ante adaptation metric is proposed, which allows monitoring of adaptive solutions over time and comparisons between projects in time and space. The fitness coefficient evaluates the ex ante relevance of these adaptive projects in relation to the climate challenges of each country. The authors have proposed a program of continuous improvement instead of a definitive calculation. The authors have developed an algorithm to automate the text analysis and minimize the subjectivity of the analysis. The objective is to assign a level of vulnerability to each project for each hazard in the country. The correspondence analysis was used to derive the most representative dimensions of project category dispersion and vulnerability intensities from a contingency table for each hazard. This coefficient can be made available to experts, project developers, and funders for ex ante evaluation and selection of candidate projects for funding before more in-depth analyses are carried out.