The Variable “Catholic” Influence on US Presidential and Abortion Politics

Abstract

We demonstrate that, in comparison to religious groups showing reliable, contemporary voting tendencies (e.g., white evangelical Protestants voting Republican, Jews and Muslims voting Democratic), Roman Catholics show far less consistency in supporting one major party over the other. After reviewing relevant literature Catholic public political preferences and behavior, we delve into a basic overview of the history of the Catholic Church in the United States. We then analyze historical periods when the impact of the church seems consequential, such as effects of the “Catholic vote”. We summarize scholarship and opinion surveys concerning Catholic political views and behavior over the last several decades, focusing on attitudes toward abortion in the wake of the Dobbs decision. We then highlight differences and similarities between Catholic rank-and-file and the church clergy and hierarchy, some of which are well known in the religion and politics literature. In sum, we find that unlike past or more contemporaneous takes on the impact of Catholics and Catholicism on politics and policy, there is no longer (if there ever was) a single, identifiable Catholic impact, even as the Catholic vote remains a demographic for which politicians compete.