Predicting the Potential Impact of Emergency on Global Grain Security: A Case of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

Global emergencies have a profound impact on exacerbating food insecurity, and the protracted Russia–Ukraine conflict has emerged as a significant driver of a global food crisis. Accurately quantifying the impact of this conflict is crucial for achieving sustainable development goals. The multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation approach was used to construct a grain security composite index (GSCI). Moreover, econometric model was used to predict the potential impacts of the conflict on global grain security in 2030 under two scenarios: with and without the “Russia-Ukraine conflict”. The results conclude that global food prices reached unprecedented levels as a consequence of the conflict, leading to notable fluctuations in food prices, especially with a significant surge in wheat prices. The conflict had a negative impact on global grain security, resulting in a decline in grain security from 0.538 to 0.419. Predictions indicate that the influence of the conflict on global grain security will be substantially greater compared to the scenario without the conflict in 2023–2030, ranging from 0.033 to 0.13. Furthermore, grain security will first decrease and then increase under the sustained consequences of the conflict. The achievement of the 2030 sustainable development goals will encounter significant challenges in light of these circumstances.