Time Trends and Geographic Patterns of Mortality Due to Tracheal, Bronchus, and Lung Cancer in Portugal

Abstract

Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBLC) remains a major public health concern. Knowledge about geographic patterns and time trends in TBLC could give insights to better address this problem. This study aimed to evaluate the geographic patterns and time trends in mortality due to TBLC observed in Portugal. TBLC-related deaths and population estimates (2011–2021) were derived from the Instituto Nacional de Estatística. Age-standardized mortality rates for people aged 50 or more (ASMR_50+) per 100,000 were obtained. Analyses were stratified by gender, geographic region, and level of urbanization. The time trends in ASMR_50+ were evaluated using joinpoint regression models, and the values for the annual percentage change (APC) and the respective 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were obtained. Differences in mortality due to TBLC between regions and levels of urbanization (2017–2021) were assessed through a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and the respective 95% CI. In 2021, the ASMR_50+ per 100,000 inhabitants observed in mainland Portugal was 158.0 and 40.4 among men and women, respectively. According to the time-trend analysis, ASMR_50+ due to TBLC remained stable or described a downward trend among men, but there was an upward trend among women in suburban and urban regions. Observed deaths were significantly higher than the expected for men in urban areas (SMR = 125%; 95% CI: 121–128 and SMR = 118%; 95% CI: 115–122 in Norte and Lisboa, respectively), and women in Urban Norte (SMR = 125%; 95%CI: 119–131). Lower mortality than expected was observed among men living in Rural Norte and Rural Centro, as well as, among women living in all the rural areas. In suburban areas, the observed deaths were lower, higher, or as expected depending on the geographic region and gender. A notable upward trend in mortality due to TBLC among women was observed. The geographic patterns observed suggest the effects of deleterious environmental factors and smoking habits, deserving attention from policymakers.