On the Initial Phase of the Ongoing Unrest at Campi Flegrei and Its Relation with Subsidence at Vesuvio (Italy)

Abstract

The densely inhabited area of Naples (Italy), between the Campi Flegrei and Vesuvio volcanoes, is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. After two decades of sustained subsidence, Campi Flegrei has been experiencing an accelerating uplift since 2005. The uplift is currently associated with unusual seismicity and increased degassing. To try to identify the cause of the shift from subsidence to uplift and explore any connection between Campi Flegrei and Vesuvio, we analysed the ground displacement time series of the two volcanoes from 1993 to 2010, obtained from ERS/ENVISAT Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery. To distinguish between the various sources of deformation, we used simple scatter plots and a blind source separation technique called variational Bayesian independent component analysis (vbICA). We obtained consistent results using both approaches. Specifically, with vbICA, we identified two significant independent components (ICs). IC1 describes the subsidence that occurred at Campi Flegrei prior to 2000, including the mini-uplifts of 2000 and 2005, and part of the post-2005 uplift. The expansion and contraction of two volumes beneath Campi Flegrei satisfy IC1: a sill-shaped volume at a depth of approximately 3 km and a small volume at a depth of 1–2 km, respectively. The two sources of deformation reproduce the large-scale deformation in the Campi Flegrei area and the local deformation in the Solfatara area, respectively. In the Campi Flegrei area, IC2 exhibits primarily uplift, which is concentrated in the eastern part of the caldera. The deformation pattern is complex and difficult to interpret. If we model it using simple spheroidal deformation sources, the pattern suggests that two volumes at depths of approximately 9 and 8 km are experiencing opposite activity, namely contraction (beneath the southwestern part of the caldera) and expansion (beneath the central part of the caldera). In the Vesuvio area, IC2 is consistent with the deformation induced by the contraction of a volume at a depth of around 9 km. The contraction beneath Vesuvio is smaller in magnitude than the expansion/contraction beneath Campi Flegrei. The correlation observed after 2002 between uplift at Campi Flegrei and subsidence at Vesuvio suggests the transfer of magma and/or magmatic fluids between the two plumbing systems at 8–9 km depth. This implies that part of the ongoing unrest at Campi Flegrei may have been promoted by mass transfer from below Vesuvio.